Wilpen L. Gorr
Professor of Public Policy and Information Systems
Wil Gorr has been on the Heinz College faculty since 1985. He serves as the faculty chair of the Master of Science in Public Policy and Management (MSPPM) program and is chair of the Faculty Oversight Committee for the MSPPM program in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining the Heinz College faculty as professor, he was assistant and associate professor at the John Glenn School of Public Affairs, The Ohio State University. He obtained his Ph.D. from the School of Urban and Public Affairs, the Heinz College's predecessor, and obtained his master and bachelor degrees from The Pennsylvania State University. He is a member of the Association of Public Policy and Management and the International Institute of Forecasters.
In 2011, Wil won the Martcia Wade Teaching Award in the Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University. In 2005, Wil was inducted as a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters. He is past editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. He was recipient of the Best Paper Award from the American Information Systems Society for "ServiceNet: An Agent-Based Framework for E-Government" in August 2001, and has received numerous teaching awards from Carnegie Mellon and Ohio State.
Wil's research interests include geographic information systems, predictive models, and management science models applied to public sector problems. His current research includes developing leading indicator forecast models for law enforcement, application of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) framework to time series analysis and forecasting, and information systems for support of policy and planning in organizations. His publications have appeared in Management Science, Geographical Analysis, The International Journal of Forecasting, Criminology, MIS Quarterly, and other leading journals. He has received funding from the National Institute of Justice, Centers for Disease Control, the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and other organizations.
Wil teaches database, geographic information systems, and project courses. He and his colleague, Kristen Kurland, have written three geographic information systems textbooks for ESRI Press.
Gorr, W.L. and Schneider, M., "ROC-Based Model Estimation for Forecasting Large Changes in Demand", International Journal of Forecasting, to appear 2014. (Download the PDF)
Gorr, W.L. and Lee, Y., “Early Warning System for Temporary Crime Hotspots, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, to appear 2014. (Download the PDF)
Gorr, W.L. and M.J. Schneider "Large-Change Forecast Accuracy: Reanalysis of M3-Competition data using receiver operating characteristics analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, Vol. 29, Issue 2, pp. 274-281. (Download the PDF)
Gorr, W.L., "Forecast Accuracy Measures for Exception Reporting Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves," /International Journal of Forecasting/, 2009, Vol. 25, Issue 1, pp. 48-61. (Download the PDF)
Cohen, J., S. Garman, and W. L. Gorr, "Empirical Calibration of Time Series Monitoring Methods Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves," /International Journal of Forecasting/, 2009, Vol. 25, Issue 3, pp. 484-497. (Download the PDF)
Cohen, J., W. L. Gorr, and A. Olligschlaeger, "Leading Indicators and Spatial Interactions: A Crime Forecasting Model for Proactive Police Deployment" Geographical Analysis, January 2007, Vol. 39, Issue1, pp. 105-127. (Download the PDF)
Gorr, W.L. and S.A. McKay, "Application of Tracking Signals to Detect Time Series Pattern Changes in Crime Mapping Systems," in F. Wang [ed.] Crime Mapping and Beyond: GIS Applications in Crime Studies, Hershey, PA: Idea Group Publishing, 2005.
Johnson, M., W.L. Gorr, and S. Roehrig, "Location of Elderly Service Facilities," Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 136 (1), January 2005.
Cohen, J., W.L. Gorr, and P. Singh, "Estimating Intervention Effects in Varying Risk Settings: Do Police Raids Reduce Illegal Drug Dealing at Nuisance Bars?," Criminology, Vol. 41 (2), May 2003, pp. 257-292.
Johnson, M., W.L. Gorr, and S. Roehrig, "Location/Allocation/Routing for Home-Delivered Meals Provision: Model and Solution Approaches," International Journal of Industrial Engineering, Special Issue on Facility Layout and Location, Vol. 9 No. 1 (2002), pp. 45 - 56.
Anderson, B.B., A. Bajaj, and W.L. Gorr, "An Estimation of the Relative Effects of External Software Quality Factors on Senior IS Managers' Evaluation of Computing Architectures," Journal of Systems & Software, Vol. 61 (2002), pp. 59-75.
Gorr, W.L., A. Olligschlaeger, and Y. Thompson, "Short-term Forecasting of Crime", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, No. 4 (2003).
Gorr, W.L., M. Johnson, and S. Roehrig, "Spatial Decision Support System for Home-Delivered Services," Geographical Analysis, Vol. 3(2001), pp. 181-197.
Duncan, G., W.L. Gorr, and J. Szczypula, "Forecasting Analogous Time Series," S. Armstrong [ed.], Forecasting Principles (2001) Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Getis, A., P. Drummey, J. Gartin, W.L. Gorr, K. Harris, P. Rogerson, D.Stoe, and R. Wright, "Geographic Information Science and Crime Analysis," Journal of the Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, Vol. 12, No.2 (2000), pp 7-14.
Geographic Information Systems, Predictive Models, and Management Science Models applied to Public sector problems.
PhD, Operations Research, Carnegie Mellon University
- Early Warning System for Crime Hot Spots
- ROC-Based Model Estimation for Forecasting Large Changes in Demand
- Longitudinal Study of Crime Hot Spots
- Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis to Evaluate Large-Change Forecast Accuracy
- Empirical Calibration of Time Series Monitoring Methods Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves
- Framework for Validating Geographic Profiling
- Leading Indicators and Spatial Interactions: A Crime Forecasting Model for Proactive Police Deployment
- Policy Systems: The Integration of Information Technology into Policy Analysis, Planning, and Program Analysis
- An Integrated Approach to Developing Human Services Web Portals
- Application of Tracking Signals to Detect Time Series Pattern Changes in Crime Mapping Systems
- Estimation of Crime Seasonality: A Cross-Sectional Extension to Time Series Classical Decomposition
- Guns and Youth Violence: An Examination of Crime Guns in One City
- Impact of Police Raids at Nuisance Bars on Illegal Drug Dealing: Estimating Intervention Effects in Varying Risk Settings
- Point Demand Forecasting
- Assessment of Crime Forecasting Accuracy for Deployment of Police
- Facility Location Model for Home-Delivered Services: Application to the Meals-on-Wheels Program
- Forecasting Crime
- Forecasting Analogous Time Series
- Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Crime: Application of Classical and Neural Network Methods
- Comparative Study of Cross Sectional Methods for Time Series with Structural Changes