There is ongoing interest in assessing the effectiveness of various drug control strategies, including policy intended to reduce initiation and prevalence. Compartmental models of trajectories of drug use have been developed that demonstrate that drug "systems" display significant inertia; interventions on systems with high inertia can be difficult to evaluate. The implications of inertia are illustrated by combining a new empirically-derived model of national drug initiation with a compartment model of trends in illicit drug use parameterized for Australia.
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