Criminal Records as a Predictor of Future Offenses

Al Blumstein, J. Erik Jonsson University Professor of Urban Systems and Operations Research and former Dean of the Heinz School, is the recipient of a two year grant from the National Institute of Justice.

Advances in information technology and growing concern about employer liability have led to an increase in the demand for criminal background checks.  As the time since the last arrest increases the probability of recidivism decreases until eventually the risk for someone with a criminal history is no greater than that for a similar counterpart without such a history.  However, little is known about the length of time until that point or how that varies with the particular criminal event and the offender's age at that event.  Blumstein and Kimonori Nakamura will study the degree to which a past criminal record loses relevance in terms of its ability to predict a future offense.

Blumstein's research over the past twenty years has covered many aspects of criminal justice phenomena and policy, including crime measurement, criminal careers, sentencing, deterrence and incapacitation, prison populations, flow through the system, demographic trends, juvenile violence and drug-enforcement policy.  He was recently selected to win the prestigious 2007 Stockholm Prize in Criminology for his pioneering research into the development of criminal behavior.