Course Catalog
Decision Modeling
95-762
Units: 6
Description
This course is one of several Heinz College courses in analytics and management science that survey a variety of hands-on quantitative modeling methods that are useful for making better evidence-based decisions. They are tailored for particular programs but overlap considerably, so students cannot take courses from more than one of these sequences because they overlap so much.
This course covers multicriteria decision making (MCDM), optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, risk-return tradeoffs, decision analysis, and forecasting. Considerable emphasis is placed on understanding the strengths and limitations of each method and so when to use which. Relative to other parallel courses, more time is spent discussing how to integrate multiple objectives or attributes, both quantifiable and non-quantifiable.
Learning Outcomes
This course has several objectives. First, you will learn about a variety of decision making tools, what they are capable of, and what their limitations are so that you can intelligently work with specialists and consultants when the occasion arises. (Implementing these methods at-scale can sometimes require a multiple person-year team effort. You may be part of – or the leader of – a team that includes members whose graduate training is entirely in management science.)
Second, you should become facile at building and analyzing smaller models in Excel. This is sometimes called “end user modeling”. More generally, studying formal approaches to decision making can make you a better decision maker even when you do not take all the steps to build a formal computational model.
Third, you should develop skill at writing and working with mathematical equations that represent the finances and the “physics” (operational reality) of systems that you will be responsible for managing and improving.
Fourth, you should develop sophistication in your ability to interpret model solutions’ implications for practical managerial decision making.
As a bonus, you will learn some about operational realities for a range of organizations in the private, nonprofit, and government sectors.
Prerequisites Description
College pre-calculus or its equivalent, including summation notation and fluency graphing and interpreting linear and nonlinear functions. The course uses Excel intensively. If you have not become proficient with Excel in some other way, you should
work through some Excel tutorials before the course begins.