Study Reimagines Balance Theory for International Relations, Shows that Neutral Ties Are Sometimes More Critical Than Alliances, Hostilities

Balance theory is one of the most widespread theories of social behavior to emerge in the past 70 years, but it has assumed different meanings and forms as it has been adapted by various branches of the study of human behavior. In a new study, researchers explore balance theory as it relates to international relations.

After analyzing almost 200 years of alliances, hostilities, and neutrality between countries, they developed a new measure that can boost understanding of international relations.   They conclude that neutrality plays an important strategic role in balancing out international relations, a role that has been virtually ignored in the study of balance in prior studies.

The study was conducted by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, the Edinburgh Business School, the University of Ljubljana, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of South Wales. It is published in PLOS One.

“In our work, we sought to provide a formal approach to the study of balance in networks that is precise yet flexible, simple yet sophisticated, and innovative yet hones even more closely to the original logic of balance theory,” says David Krackhardt, professor of organizations at Carnegie Mellon’s Heinz College, who coauthored the study. “Our approach permits researchers in all fields to better specify and understand balance theory’s implications and predictions under such expanded conditions.”

Previous studies have tended to categorize international relations in either positive or negative terms. This exclusively binary approach has resulted in neutrality being ignored, classified as “missing” data, or even misclassified as a negative relation.  By introducing neutrality as a category (alongside positive and negative international relations), this study identified 19 new types of relational groupings between countries, well beyond the classic eight balance configurations normally considered.

Researchers analyzed 192 years of data (from 1816 to 2007), using the Correlates of War project, which collects, disseminates, and facilitates the use of accurate and reliable data in international relations. Using their innovative measure, they uncovered three time periods, 1816 to 1866, 1867 to 1936, and 1937 to 2007. Balance, especially for Alliance ties, was particularly and consistently strong among in the first and third periods. Yet during the interim period, between the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian empire and the rise of a remilitarized Germany, balance among the nations of the world was notably weaker. 

This new measure of relational structure (balance correlations) has practical implications. “Policymakers can benefit because our work quantifies types of behavior in ways that were not identified previously,” explains David Dekker, research fellow at the Edinburgh Business School, who coauthored the study. “The measure could be used in a variety of ways to help deepen understanding of relations between countries.

“This approach also can help us understand and study other types of relations, such as between firms in an environment punctuated by mergers and acquisitions, or between people in an organization as they devolve into cliques or cultural echo chambers,” adds Krackhardt.

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Summarized from an article in PLOS One, Balance Correlations, Agentic Zeros, and Networks: The Structure of 192 Years of War and Peace, by Dekker, D (Edinburgh Business School), Krackhardt, D (Carnegie Mellon University), Doreian, P (University of Ljubljana, University of Pittsburgh), and Krivitsky, PN (University of New South Wales). Copyright 2024 The Authors. All rights reserved.

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